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SVR Winter Series #7 Predict the Time 4 Mile

Saturday 26 February 2005 - Stonebrook Racquet & Fitness Club, Winchester, VA

PREDICTION RESULTS

A breakdown of the predictions appears below the results

# name age sex city, state predicted time actual time difference o'all in sex SVR? sort psort
1. Michelle VanHorn 23 F Harpers Ferry, WV 28:45 28:45 exact - 0:00 15th 1st Y 15 1
Doug Morris 66 M Delaplane, VA 32:30 32:30 exact - 0:00 31st 27th Y 31 2
3. Neal Riemenschneider 50 M Winchester, VA 28:00 28:01 low by 0:01 12th 12th Y 12 3
4. Ian Morris 26 M Ranson, WV 30:30 30:27 high by 0:03 24th 22nd Y 24 4
5. Michael Triantafillou 45 M Winchester, VA 30:00 30:06 low by 0:06 21st 20th Y 21 5
6. Karsten Brown 30 M Front Royal, VA 25:39 25:46 low by 0:07 4th 4th Y 4 6
7. Glenn Gravatt 47 M Harpers Ferry, WV 27:59 28:08 low by 0:09 13th 13th Y 13 7
8. Raymond Bollock 39 M Winchester, VA 24:20 24:10 high by 0:10 3rd 3rd Y 3 8
9. Dave Gearhart 50 M Winchester, VA 29:51 29:40 high by 0:11 20th 19th Y 20 9
10. John Shelburne 43 M Winchester, VA 27:45 27:25 high by 0:20 9th 9th Y 9 10
11. John Volinsky 44 M Winchester, VA 29:40 29:18 high by 0:22 18th 17th N 18 11
12. Robbie Olsen 21 M Strasburg, VA 22:51 23:17 low by 0:26 1st 1st Y 1 12
13. Vicky Krossman 35 F Winchester, VA 32:56 33:25 low by 0:29 34th 5th Y 34 13
14. Brad Rippey 38 M Bunker Hill, WV 23:25 23:55 low by 0:30 2nd 2nd Y 2 14
Terry Leckie 41 M Front Royal, VA 28:47 29:17 low by 0:30 17th 16th Y 17 15
16. Michael Brosenne 27 M Columbia, MD 26:45 27:17 low by 0:32 8th 8th Y 8 16
17. Joel McKenzie 43 M Stephens City, VA 28:10 27:35 high by 0:35 10th 10th Y 10 17
Ed Mayhew 59 M Winchester, VA 31:30 32:05 low by 0:35 30th 26th Y 30 18
19. Moe Morris 52 M Hagerstown, MD 31:31 30:54 high by 0:37 27th 24th Y 27 19
20. Mike Meadows 47 M Martinsburg, WV 25:32 26:13 low by 0:41 5th 5th Y 5 20
21. Connie McKenzie 14 F Stephens City, VA 42:00 42:42 low by 0:42 47th 11th Y 47 21
22. Bill Senseney 56 M Charles Town, WV 27:08 27:53 low by 0:45 11th 11th Y 11 22
Woody Long 66 M Arlington, VA 47:00 47:45 low by 0:45 52nd 37th N 52 23
24. Nancy Specht 52 F Bunker Hill, WV 36:00 36:49 low by 0:49 39th 7th Y 39 24
25. James Channell 40 M Stephens City, VA 35:55 36:45 low by 0:50 38th 32nd Y 38 25
26. Sarah Smaltz 12 F Ashburn, VA 36:43 37:34 low by 0:51 41st 8th Y 41 26
27. Mary Smith 22 F Sterling, VA 30:55 31:48 low by 0:53 29th 4th Y 29 27
28. Duane Williamson 41 M Warrenton, VA 27:20 28:14 low by 0:54 14th 14th Y 14 28
29. Krista Farris 35 F Winchester, VA 31:30 30:34 high by 0:56 26th 3rd Y 26 29
Pat Griffith 60 M Alexandria, VA 25:25 26:21 low by 0:56 6th 6th Y 6 30
31. Bob Fletcher 47 M Stephens City, VA 36:25 35:25 high by 1:00 35th 30th Y 35 31
32. Tom Aldstadt 45 M Winchester, VA 29:30 30:33 low by 1:03 25th 23rd Y 25 32
33. Jim Shaughnessy 44 M Winchester, VA 27:50 28:54 low by 1:04 16th 15th Y 16 33
34. Vince Wertz 42 M Martinsburg, WV 36:30 37:41 low by 1:11 42nd 34th N 42 34
35. Peter Blank 50 M Annandale, VA 29:00 30:17 low by 1:17 23rd 21st Y 23 35
36. Bill Blackstone 38 M Winchester, VA 28:10 26:50 high by 1:20 7th 7th N 7 36
37. Randy Wingfield 59 M Winchester, VA 28:10 29:36 low by 1:26 19th 18th Y 19 37
38. Marsha Soergel 23 F Manassas, VA 31:40 30:08 high by 1:32 22nd 2nd Y 22 38
Paul Grosz 55 M Stephens City, VA 35:50 37:22 low by 1:32 40th 33rd Y 40 39
40. Patty Joyce 50 F Falls Church, VA 44:44 43:06 high by 1:38 48th 12th Y 48 40
41. Ed Grainger 60 M Stephens City, VA 34:00 35:40 low by 1:40 36th 31st Y 36 41
42. Colleen Snyder 49 F Linden, VA 42:27 44:14 low by 1:47 50th 14th Y 50 42
43. Sarah Gough 32 F Delaplane, VA 38:38 36:42 high by 1:56 37th 6th Y 37 43
Don Smaltz 43 M Ashburn, VA 31:20 33:16 low by 1:56 33rd 29th Y 33 44
Robert Gurtler 70 M The Plains, VA 37:02 38:58 low by 1:56 43rd 35th Y 43 45
46. Carol Culvyhouse 41 F Inwood, WV 42:00 44:26 low by 2:26 51st 15th Y 51 46
47. Kelsey Shroades 18 F Hedgesville, WV 39:00 42:05 low by 3:05 46th 10th Y 46 47
48. Glenn Luttrell 62 M Winchester, VA 37:20 41:49 low by 4:29 45th 36th Y 45 48
49. Roy McKenzie 16 M Stephens City, VA 28:00 32:45 low by 4:45 32nd 28th Y 32 49
50. Carolyn Channell 39 F Stephens City, VA 49:20 54:14 low by 4:54 53rd 16th Y 53 50
51. Meg Roque 28 F Winchester, VA 35:14 40:18 low by 5:04 44th 9th Y 44 51
52. Jessica Smaltz 16 F Ashburn, VA 38:00 43:54 low by 5:54 49th 13th Y 49 52
53. Myron Kremer 47 M Winchester, VA 37:38 31:37 high by 6:01 28th 25th Y 28 53
PREDICTION STATISTICS:
# % predict actual diff. of avgs.
number of exact guesses: 2 4% AVERAGES: 32:31 33:18 low by 0:47
number of high guesses: 14 26% predict actual diff. of avgs.
number of low guesses: 37 70% MEDIANS: 31:20 30:54 high by 0:26
BREAKDOWN OF GUESSES:
difference range rnrs. AVERAGE PREDICTION DIFFERENCE: 1:23
between 0:00-0:15 off: 9 MEDIAN PREDICTION DIFFERENCE: 0:53
between 0:16-0:30 off: 6
between 0:31-0:45 off: 8
between 0:46-1:00 off: 8 AVERAGE TIMES PER DIFFERENCE RANGE:
between 1:01-1:15 off: 3 pred. actual
between 1:16-1:30 off: 3 difference range time time # of runners
between 1:31-1:45 off: 4 between 0:00 - 0:30: 28:12 28:17 15
between 1:46-2:00 off: 4 between 0:31 - 1:00: 32:29 32:52 16
between 2:01-2:15 off: 0 between 1:01 - 1:30: 29:52 30:39 6
between 2:16-2:30 off: 1 between 1:31 - 2:00: 36:58 37:26 8
between 2:31-2:45 off: 0 above 2:00: 38:19 41:24 8
between 2:46-3:00 off: 0
between 3:01-4:00 off: 1
between 4:01-5:00 off: 3
above 5:00: 3
total: 53

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