One of the most valuable tools available to a runner is a stopwatch. It tells you how much time has elapsed since you started running. It gives you an idea of how much longer you have to run. And if you know how far you've gone, a stopwatch tells you just how fast you are running. But what if you are deprived of this tool? What if you're not permitted to wear a watch during a race? What if a footrace becomes complete guesswork, from what pace to run right down to what you think your eventual finish time is going to be? That is the premise of the Predicted Time 4 Miler, the seventh race in the Shenandoah Valley Runners' Winter Series, held this year on Saturday 24 February.
Before the start, each runner writes down a prediction of how fast they think they will finish. Factor in the rolling nature of the wheel-measured four mile course, and prognostication becomes that much more difficult. Experience helps, but even the speedier folk have trouble pegging down their predictions. In the end it's a combination of educated guesswork and blind luck which leads to Predicted Time bragging rights and the usual selection of inexpensive prizes.
Clear skies and a light but chilly breeze greeted the fifty-three runners at this year's race, with temperatures rising to near the freezing mark by the 9:30 AM start. After the traditional pre-race "raising of the arms"-- a token inspection to make sure nobody was wearing a watch-- race director Terry Leckie said "Go!" and the runners strode up the first of what seemed like an endless series of hills through the Stonebrook Farms neigborhood west of Winchester, Virginia. Mile markers on the out-and-back route told runners how far they had run, but nobody had any idea of their time-- not even as they sped downhill to the finish line, where the race clock faced away from the course.
In the past decade, only four runners at this race have managed to match their predicted time exactly. Nobody pulled off the feat this year, but two 58-year-olds finished within two seconds of their pre-race guesses. Winchester's Stephen Armstrong, participating in this event for the first time, originally wrote down 32:00 as his predicted finish time, but after further consideration he returned to the registration table before the start and asked to add a minute to his guess. This was a fortuitous decision, as he wound up completing the course in 32:58, just a few steps ahead of his revised prediction. The other top guesser was Winter Series veteran Bill Senseney of Charles Town, whose excellent 28:22 performance nearly matched his guess of 28:20. Senseney also came close at last year's race, missing his prediction by just eight seconds. (But we still recall Bill's comically high guess at the 2002 Predicted Time event, which resulted in a miss of nearly forty-two minutes!)
Another newcomer to the Predicted Time 4 Miler, Jim Harden of Martinsburg, wound up with the third best prediction result, finishing four seconds faster than his 35:15 target. And six runners were off by just five seconds: co-workers Duane Williamson and Robert Gurtler, first-time predictors Judy Pollard and Mary Leigh, and second-timers Peter Mattens and Stephen Meier. (Both Mattens and Meier came close in their first attempts as well, with Mattens missing his guess by ten seconds in 2003 and Meier missing by seven seconds in 2006.) In all, over half of this year's field missed their guesses by a minute or less, and just over a third of the participants came within twenty seconds. Among this third was a surprising cluster of high-quality guesses near the back of the pack, where the 43rd through 48th finishers--Peggy Duvall, Gurtler, Nancy Specht, Pollard, Leigh, and Carol Culvyhouse-- all came very close to their predictions.
While the race's cheap prizes were awarded based on the time predictions, runners were also competing against each other in the traditional sense, with many trying to solidify their position in the standings of the eight-race SVR Winter Series. On the men's side of the race, 24-year-old Charles Bowles of Boyce put together a commanding performance, taking the lead half a mile into the race and never looking back. A gap of maybe ten seconds over his nearest competitor at the turnaround became a sizeable thirty-seven second margin by the time Bowles crossed the finish line in 23:12. Some may have been surprised by Bowles' victory at the Run for a Rose 2.7 Miler two weeks earlier, but he proved it was no fluke with another great run.
Coming in a distant second among the men was course measurer Karsten Brown, 32, who spent much of the race in fear of hearing the approaching footsteps of last year's 4 mile winner, 40-year-old Brad Rippey of Bunker Hill, WV. Although that sound never came, Rippey was not very far behind Brown, finishing third in 24:09 to Brown's 23:49. Taking fourth place was another Bunker Hill resident, 29-year-old Stephen Meier, who finished two seconds faster than last year with a 25:05 performance. Winchester's Raymond Bollock, 41, rounded out the top five in 25:22.
35-year-old Brenda Schrank of Winchester set a women's course record of 26:36 at last year's Predicted Time race, so she was the clear favorite among this year's field of seventeen female participants. Sure enough, Schrank didn't disappoint, breaking her own record with a 26:05 finish for the overall victory. Youngsters took three of the next four spots in the top five. 13-year-old Presley Parkes, a straight-A student at Byrd Middle School in Winchester, finished second in 28:59. 12-year-old Brittany Pollard of Falling Waters, WV placed third in 31:01, but this was enough to vault her into the overall female Winter Series lead with just one race remaining. 15-year-old Alyssa Meadows of Martinsburg also moved up in the series standings, thanks to her 33:56 fifth place finish. Winchester's Vicky Krossman, 37, crossed the line between Pollard and Meadows in 33:12, while 41-year-old Shelley Klee was the top Masters woman in 37:15.
The race's order of finish was maintained through the use of numbered cards handed out at the finish line, and as at previous editions of this event, each card contained a multiple-choice poll question asking runners to predict which film would win Best Picture at the following day's Academy Awards ceremony. It wound up being a split decision among the runners, with The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, and Little Miss Sunshine garnering nine votes each. The Queen picked up three votes, while just one runner chose Babel. The Departed turned out to be the big winner at the Oscars, with Martin Scorsese's film also picking up awards for director, editing, and adapted screenplay. So congratulations to the nine runners who picked the winning film: Patrick Barrett, Robie Cone, Peggy Duvall, Myron Kremer, Mitchell Lippy, Stephen Meier, Presley Parkes, Bill Senseney, and Duane Williamson! (Dishonorable mention goes to Charles Bowles, whose write-in response of "Hogan Knows Best" is a television program, not a theatrical movie.)
Terry Leckie did his usual fine job in his fourth year as Predicted Time race director, with assistance from volunteers Gail Bollock, Alexander Snyder, Nancy Bullock, Joel McKenzie, Myron Kremer, and Karsten Brown. The race also benefitted from the hospitality of the Stonebrook Racquet & Fitness Club, whose employees and patrons were once again nice enough to put up with a crowd of runners clogging up their entranceway for a couple hours. With any luck we'll be back at Stonebrook next year for another running of the Predicted Time 4 Miler!
(COURSE NOTE: Although the same basic route was used this year, the four mile course was approximately 220 feet shorter than last year. How is this possible? The course had originally been measured in 2004 with the SVR's measuring wheel, but unbeknownst to anyone at the time, that measuring wheel is inaccurate. It was later determined that the SVR's wheel tacks on a little over fifty feet to each "mile" it measures. So the Predicted Time course was remeasured this year using a different measuring wheel, and sure enough, the new turnaround point wound up being 110 feet short of the old, presumably less accurate turnaround. This may not seem like much, but 220 feet is worth a good twenty seconds at a pace of eight minutes per mile-- and an accurate course is certainly important when the race itself is based around predicting one's performance over a specific distance! So with the course now remeasured, we're confident that this year's race was reasonably close to the required length of 21,120 feet.)
OVERALL RESULTS
#
name
age
sex
city, state
time
pace
in sex
poll: Best Picture pick?
1.
Charles Bowles
24
M
Boyce, VA
23:12
5:48
1st
Hogan Knows Best
2.
Karsten Brown
32
M
Front Royal, VA
23:49
5:57
2nd
Basic Instinct 2
3.
Brad Rippey
40
M
Bunker Hill, WV
24:09
6:02
3rd
Babel
4.
Stephen Meier
29
M
Bunker Hill, WV
25:05
6:16
4th
The Departed
5.
Raymond Bollock
41
M
Winchester, VA
25:22
6:21
5th
no answer
6.
Bill Blackstone
40
M
Winchester, VA
25:41
6:25
6th
Little Miss Sunshine
7.
Mike Meadows
49
M
Martinsburg, WV
25:55
6:29
7th
no answer
8.
Brenda Schrank
35
F
Winchester, VA
26:05
6:31
1st
The Queen
9.
Duane Williamson
43
M
Warrenton, VA
26:20
6:35
8th
The Departed
10.
Jason Page
62
M
Hamilton, VA
27:26
6:52
9th
none
11.
Bill Senseney
58
M
Charles Town, WV
28:22
7:06
10th
The Departed
12.
Jonathan Bellingham
44
M
Capon Springs, WV
28:40
7:10
11th
no answer
13.
Presley Parkes
13
F
Winchester, VA
28:59
7:15
2nd
The Departed
14.
Glenn Gravatt
49
M
Harpers Ferry, WV
29:19
7:20
12th
Raising Arizona
15.
Chris Quasebarth
47
M
Winchester, VA
30:22
7:36
13th
Letters from Iwo Jima
16.
Craig Richard
37
M
Winchester, VA
30:28
7:37
14th
Letters from Iwo Jima
17.
Brittany Pollard
12
F
Falling Waters, WV
31:01
7:45
3rd
Little Miss Sunshine
18.
Tony Werner
36
M
Winchester, VA
31:15
7:49
15th
no answer
19.
Randy Wingfield
61
M
Winchester, VA
31:36
7:54
16th
no answer
20.
Jon Palks
57
M
Bowie, MD
31:40
7:55
17th
American Hardcore
21.
Patrick Barrett
14
M
Rileyville, VA
31:49
7:57
18th
The Departed
22.
Denny Myers
52
M
Stephens City, VA
31:57
7:59
19th
no answer
23.
Peter Mattens
34
M
Winchester, VA
32:35
8:09
20th
The Queen
24.
Michael Triantafillou
47
M
Winchester, VA
32:36
8:09
21st
???
25.
Myron Kremer
49
M
Winchester, VA
32:52
8:13
22nd
The Departed
26.
Stephen Armstrong
58
M
Winchester, VA
32:58
8:15
23rd
no answer
27.
Vicky Krossman
37
F
Winchester, VA
33:12
8:18
4th
no answer
28.
Tom Aldstadt
47
M
Winchester, VA
33:33
8:23
24th
no answer
29.
Alyssa Meadows
15
F
Martinsburg, WV
33:56
8:29
5th
no answer
30.
Jim Harden
35
M
Martinsburg, WV
35:11
8:48
25th
no answer
31.
George Dupuy
29
M
Luray, VA
35:21
8:50
26th
Little Miss Sunshine
32.
John Bannister
58
M
Haymarket, VA
36:00
9:00
27th
Letters from Iwo Jima
33.
Terry McCarthy
71
M
Leesburg, VA
36:23
9:06
28th
The Queen
34.
Glenn Luttrell
64
M
Winchester, VA
36:51
9:13
29th
Letters from Iwo Jima
35.
Shelley Klee
41
F
Winchester, VA
37:15
9:19
6th
Little Miss Sunshine
36.
Paul Grosz
57
M
Stephens City, VA
37:48
9:27
30th
Letters from Iwo Jima
37.
Ellie Hamilton
55
F
Winchester, VA
37:58
9:30
7th
Little Miss Sunshine
38.
Stephen Hott-Bellingham
10
M
Capon Springs, WV
38:25
9:36
31st
no answer
39.
Margaret Tice
48
F
Charles Town, WV
38:28
9:37
8th
Letters from Iwo Jima
40.
Cristina Meier
30
F
Bunker Hill, WV
38:44
9:41
9th
Letters from Iwo Jima
41.
Mitchell Lippy
12
M
Winchester, VA
38:53
9:43
32nd
The Departed
42.
Heather Lark-Rickard
34
F
Stephens City, VA
38:59
9:45
10th
Little Miss Sunshine
43.
Peggy Duvall
49
F
Winchester, VA
39:41
9:55
11th
The Departed
44.
Robert Gurtler
72
M
The Plains, VA
39:55
9:59
33rd
Little Miss Sunshine
45.
Nancy Specht
54
F
Bunker Hill, WV
40:12
10:03
12th
Jackass Number Two
46.
Judy Pollard
37
F
Falling Waters, WV
41:18
10:20
13th
Facing The Giants
47.
Mary Leigh
26
F
Winchester, VA
41:22
10:21
14th
Letters from Iwo Jima
48.
Carol Culvyhouse
43
F
Inwood, WV
42:44
10:41
15th
Little Miss Sunshine
49.
Colleen Snyder
50
F
Linden, VA
46:55
11:44
16th
Little Miss Sunshine
50.
Jeannette Shaffer
37
F
Gore, VA
47:47
11:57
17th
no answer
51.
Bob Atkins
81
M
Winchester, VA
55:04
13:46
34th
Letters from Iwo Jima
52.
Tom Tipp
62
M
Midlothian, VA
57:44
14:26
35th
no answer
53.
Robie Cone
83
M
Berryville, VA
1:07:20
16:50
36th
The Departed
PREDICTION RESULTS
Upon signing up for the race, each runner was asked to predict his or her eventual finish time. Watches could not be worn during the race. Prizes were given to the runners whose actual times came the closest to their pre-race predictions.
#
name
age
sex
city, state
actual time
pred. time
difference
o'all
in sex
1.
Bill Senseney
58
M
Charles Town, WV
28:22
28:20
low by 0:02
11th
10th
Stephen Armstrong
58
M
Winchester, VA
32:58
33:00
high by 0:02
26th
23rd
3.
Jim Harden
35
M
Martinsburg, WV
35:11
35:15
high by 0:04
30th
25th
4.
Stephen Meier
29
M
Bunker Hill, WV
25:05
25:00
low by 0:05
4th
4th
Duane Williamson
43
M
Warrenton, VA
26:20
26:25
high by 0:05
9th
8th
Peter Mattens
34
M
Winchester, VA
32:35
32:30
low by 0:05
23rd
20th
Robert Gurtler
72
M
The Plains, VA
39:55
40:00
high by 0:05
44th
33rd
Judy Pollard
37
F
Falling Waters, WV
41:18
41:13
low by 0:05
46th
13th
Mary Leigh
26
F
Winchester, VA
41:22
41:17
low by 0:05
47th
14th
10.
Raymond Bollock
41
M
Winchester, VA
25:22
25:15
low by 0:07
5th
5th
11.
Randy Wingfield
61
M
Winchester, VA
31:36
31:24
low by 0:12
19th
16th
Nancy Specht
54
F
Bunker Hill, WV
40:12
40:00
low by 0:12
45th
12th
13.
Karsten Brown
32
M
Front Royal, VA
23:49
23:35
low by 0:14
2nd
2nd
Brad Rippey
40
M
Bunker Hill, WV
24:09
23:55
low by 0:14
3rd
3rd
Cristina Meier
30
F
Bunker Hill, WV
38:44
38:30
low by 0:14
40th
9th
Carol Culvyhouse
43
F
Inwood, WV
42:44
42:30
low by 0:14
48th
15th
17.
Mike Meadows
49
M
Martinsburg, WV
25:55
26:10
high by 0:15
7th
7th
18.
Peggy Duvall
49
F
Winchester, VA
39:41
40:00
high by 0:19
43rd
11th
19.
Charles Bowles
24
M
Boyce, VA
23:12
23:32
high by 0:20
1st
1st
20.
Bob Atkins
81
M
Winchester, VA
55:04
55:26
high by 0:22
51st
34th
21.
Glenn Luttrell
64
M
Winchester, VA
36:51
37:15
high by 0:24
34th
29th
22.
Jon Palks
57
M
Bowie, MD
31:40
32:06
high by 0:26
20th
17th
23.
Jason Page
62
M
Hamilton, VA
27:26
26:52
low by 0:34
10th
9th
24.
Jonathan Bellingham
44
M
Capon Springs, WV
28:40
28:05
low by 0:35
12th
11th
25.
Chris Quasebarth
47
M
Winchester, VA
30:22
31:00
high by 0:38
15th
13th
26.
Glenn Gravatt
49
M
Harpers Ferry, WV
29:19
29:59
high by 0:40
14th
12th
27.
Bill Blackstone
40
M
Winchester, VA
25:41
25:00
low by 0:41
6th
6th
28.
Paul Grosz
57
M
Stephens City, VA
37:48
38:30
high by 0:42
36th
30th
29.
Shelley Klee
41
F
Winchester, VA
37:15
38:00
high by 0:45
35th
6th
30.
Brenda Schrank
35
F
Winchester, VA
26:05
25:12
low by 0:53
8th
1st
Denny Myers
52
M
Stephens City, VA
31:57
31:04
low by 0:53
22nd
19th
32.
George Dupuy
29
M
Luray, VA
35:21
34:15
low by 1:06
31st
26th
33.
Alyssa Meadows
15
F
Martinsburg, WV
33:56
32:40
low by 1:16
29th
5th
John Bannister
58
M
Haymarket, VA
36:00
34:44
low by 1:16
32nd
27th
35.
Myron Kremer
49
M
Winchester, VA
32:52
31:30
low by 1:22
25th
22nd
36.
Craig Richard
37
M
Winchester, VA
30:28
31:55
high by 1:27
16th
14th
37.
Heather Lark-Rickard
34
F
Stephens City, VA
38:59
40:32
high by 1:33
42nd
10th
38.
Jeannette Shaffer
37
F
Gore, VA
47:47
46:00
low by 1:47
50th
17th
39.
Vicky Krossman
37
F
Winchester, VA
33:12
35:20
high by 2:08
27th
4th
40.
Presley Parkes
13
F
Winchester, VA
28:59
26:45
low by 2:14
13th
2nd
41.
Tom Aldstadt
47
M
Winchester, VA
33:33
31:08
low by 2:25
28th
24th
42.
Michael Triantafillou
47
M
Winchester, VA
32:36
30:10
low by 2:26
24th
21st
43.
Mitchell Lippy
12
M
Winchester, VA
38:53
36:00
low by 2:53
41st
32nd
44.
Margaret Tice
48
F
Charles Town, WV
38:28
41:36
high by 3:08
39th
8th
45.
Stephen Hott-Bellingham
10
M
Capon Springs, WV
38:25
35:10
low by 3:15
38th
31st
46.
Patrick Barrett
14
M
Rileyville, VA
31:49
28:31
low by 3:18
21st
18th
47.
Colleen Snyder
50
F
Linden, VA
46:55
43:02
low by 3:53
49th
16th
48.
Brittany Pollard
12
F
Falling Waters, WV
31:01
27:00
low by 4:01
17th
3rd
49.
Ellie Hamilton
55
F
Winchester, VA
37:58
45:00
high by 7:02
37th
7th
50.
Terry McCarthy
71
M
Leesburg, VA
36:23
44:00
high by 7:37
33rd
28th
51.
Tony Werner
36
M
Winchester, VA
31:15
39:00
high by 7:45
18th
15th
52.
Robie Cone
83
M
Berryville, VA
1:07:20
1:20:00
high by 12:40
53rd
36th
53.
Tom Tipp
62
M
Midlothian, VA
57:44
42:00
low by 15:44
52nd
35th
PREDICTION STATISTICS:
Number of exact guesses: 0
Number of high guesses: 22
Number of low guesses: 31
Average actual time: 35:02
Average predicted time: 34:57
Difference of averages: low by 0:05
POST-RACE POLL What movie do you think will win this year's Oscar for Best Picture?
The question was multiple-choice, with a write-in option. Write-in responses appear in red. The Departed was awarded Best Picture at the 79th Annual Academy Awards on Sunday 25 February 2007.
#
movie
votes
pct.
1.
The Departed
9
17.0%
Letters from Iwo Jima
9
17.0%
Little Miss Sunshine
9
17.0%
4.
The Queen
3
5.7%
5.
Babel
1
1.9%
American Hardcore
1
1.9%
Basic Instinct 2
1
1.9%
Facing The Giants
1
1.9%
Hogan Knows Best
1
1.9%
Jackass Number Two
1
1.9%
Raising Arizona
1
1.9%
*
no answer
16
30.2%
ALL-TIME TOP 25 SVR PREDICTED TIME GUESSERS, 2000-2007
Minimum three races run. The SVR's Predicted Time race was a 5K from 2000-2002, and a 4 miler from 2003-present. (No prediction statistics were kept at editions of the Predicted Time race prior to 2000.)
#
name
avg. guess
races run
1.
Karsten Brown
off by 0:08.00
5
2.
Dustin Sweeney
off by 0:14.67
3
3.
Mark Stickley
off by 0:16.33
3
4.
Raymond Bollock
off by 0:17.50
4
5.
Brad Rippey
off by 0:19.60
5
6.
Neal Riemenschneider
off by 0:21.60
5
7.
Joel McKenzie
off by 0:22.75
4
8.
Jen Peachey Schaefer
off by 0:23.67
3
9.
Paul Grosz
off by 0:27.13
8
10.
Jason Page
off by 0:29.25
4
11.
Dave Gearhart
off by 0:29.33
3
12.
Charles Bowles
off by 0:29.57
7
13.
Mike Meadows
off by 0:32.00
6
14.
Mike Allen
off by 0:32.67
3
15.
Robert Gurtler
off by 0:37.67
6
16.
Mark Vann
off by 0:38.20
5
17.
Ann Robb
off by 0:38.67
3
18.
Glenn Gravatt
off by 0:41.33
3
19.
Keith Kreuz
off by 0:44.40
5
20.
Ed Grainger
off by 0:47.75
4
21.
Krista Farris
off by 0:49.00
4
Brenda Schrank
off by 0:49.00
3
23.
Jon Palks
off by 0:49.25
4
24.
Mary Smith
off by 0:50.40
5
25.
Terry Leckie
off by 0:51.50
6
299 different people have run the SVR's Predicted Time race since 2000. Paul Grosz, Nancy Specht, and Randy Wingfield are the only people who have run all eight of those races, while Charles Bowles, Myron Kremer, Bill Senseney, and Michael Triantafillou have each run the race seven times.
Results, report, and statistics provided by Karsten Brown. Send him an e-mail if you have any corrections or questions.